This paper presents a methodology for analyzing well deformation under the thaw subsidence loading. The well evaluation methodology includes several analysis programs in sequence, such as wellbore hydraulic and heat transfer analysis, to determine the heat input to the permafrost interval due to the production of hydrocarbons; geothermal analysis, to estimate the extent of the permafrost thaw; geomechanical and soil deformation analysis, to calculate the thaw-induced soil stress and movement; and casing-formation interaction analysis, to evaluate the impact of thaw subsidence on the potential deformations and mechanical and hydraulic integrity of well casing systems. The presented methodology is recommended for optimizing well completion designs to minimize the well failure potentials.
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